Private company
iPredict
New Zealand prediction market
iPredict was a New Zealand prediction market that offered prediction exchanges on current events, political issues and economic issues. iPredict was jointly owned by the New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation and Victoria University of Wellington. The site launched on 9 September 2008 and closed 1 December 2016. iPredict's system was a prediction market that allowed members to trade contracts (take 'positions') on whether future events would or would not occur.2 Wikipedia text CC BY-SA 4.0
Last updated Oct 21, 2026.
Overview
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iPredict was a New Zealand prediction market that offered prediction exchanges on current events, political issues and economic issues. iPredict was jointly owned by the New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation and Victoria University of Wellington. The site launched on 9 September 2008 and closed 1 December 2016.2
Controversies and legal
Legal status and technical problems
Under the New Zealand Gambling Act 1993, only the New Zealand Lotteries Commission and the TAB are permitted to accept bets by internet or phone. However, iPredict was authorised by the New Zealand Securities Commission as an authorised futures dealer, so was therefore lawful. This was met with opposition from the Problem Gambling Foundation.
In 2012 the website was hit by a run of technical problems, causing it to operate at greatly reduced speeds and go offline for a number of days at a time on at least two occasions. This caused problems for iPredict commercially for its deal with Exceltium.
In 2013 a single $60 bet placed by a trader speculating on a previously lowly traded contract relating to Peter Dunne who was under investigation relating to the Kitteridge report caused a high volume of erratic trades and media coverage. The volume of activity caused iPredict to go offline which was initially considered to be a denial of service attack. The incident is considered to have harmed the credibility of iPredict as a trustworthy political predictor at the time, after some media coverage which took it to be credible information initially.
By 2014, and during the leadup to the general election, the approximately weekly reports on the status of the political contracts were reported as at a random time by Exceltium, on a pro bono basis. Exceltium is a Wellington-based corporate and public affairs consultancy, majority owned by right-wing political lobbyist, Matthew Hooton.
The gaming of iPredict by National Party members was specifically noted by Nicky Hager in his book "Dirty Politics", which was released in August 2014.
From Wikipedia’s article on IPredict, shared under CC BY-SA 4.0.3
Timeline
- 2008Founded Founded1
Links
Sources
The numbers on this page point here. Each one links to the record it came from.
- 1WikidataiPredict on Wikidata
- 2WikipediaiPredict on Wikipedia
- 3