- S&P 500 7,659.44 −1.09%
- Dow Jones 52,002.41 −0.34%
- Nasdaq 26,713.03 +0.08%
- VIX 19.99 +21.45%
- 10-year Treasury 5.09% −0.01
- Dollar index 121.40 −0.14%
- WTI crude $101.91 +1.04%
The economy
Where the U.S. economy stands, from official statistics: interest rates, inflation, jobs, growth, the federal debt, Treasury auctions and the economic calendar, with world comparisons. Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), the Treasury, the CFTC and the World Bank; latest reading Oct 19, 2026.
Headline indicators
The latest reading of each, the change from the reading before it, and the recent trend. Each links to its source series.
10-year minus 2-year spread
0.38% +0.03 pts
Oct 19, 2026; change vs prior reading
Negative means an inverted yield curveCPI inflation, year over year
3.72% +0.36 pts
Sep 2026; change vs prior reading
Computed from the CPI indexCore CPI, year over year
2.57% +0.12 pts
Sep 2026; change vs prior reading
Excludes food and energyPayrolls change
29K −104K
Sep 2026; change vs prior reading
Monthly change in nonfarm payrolls, thousandsReal GDP growth
2.20% −0.30 pts
Q2 2026; change vs prior reading
Quarter over quarter, annualizedTen years of the main indicators
CPI inflation, year over year
3.72% +0.36 pts Sep 2026
Source: FRED CPIAUCSL. Computed from the CPI index.
Payrolls change
29K −104K Sep 2026
Source: FRED PAYEMS. Monthly change in nonfarm payrolls, thousands.
Real GDP growth
2.20% −0.30 pts Q2 2026
Source: FRED A191RL1Q225SBEA. Quarter over quarter, annualized.
The Treasury yield curve
Yields on Treasury securities by maturity on Oct 16, 2026, a month earlier and a year earlier. The 10-year yield is above the 3-month yield: the curve slopes upward at that point.
Latest (Oct 16, 2026)1 month earlier (Sep 16, 2026)1 year earlier (Oct 16, 2025)
| Maturity | Latest | 1 month earlier | 1 year earlier | Change, 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 4.12% | 3.96% | 4.20% | −0.08 pts |
| 3M | 4.26% | 4.14% | 4.02% | +0.24 pts |
| 6M | 4.34% | 4.22% | 3.79% | +0.55 pts |
| 1Y | 4.46% | 4.45% | 3.54% | +0.92 pts |
| 2Y | 4.74% | 4.74% | 3.41% | +1.33 pts |
| 3Y | 4.82% | 4.82% | 3.42% | +1.40 pts |
| 5Y | 4.89% | 4.86% | 3.55% | +1.34 pts |
| 7Y | 4.98% | 4.94% | 3.74% | +1.24 pts |
| 10Y | 5.09% | 5.01% | 3.99% | +1.10 pts |
| 20Y | 5.47% | 5.39% | 4.56% | +0.91 pts |
| 30Y | 5.43% | 5.35% | 4.58% | +0.85 pts |
Source: U.S. Treasury constant-maturity yields via FRED (DGS1MO, DGS3MO, DGS6MO, DGS1, DGS2, DGS3, DGS5, DGS7, DGS10, DGS20, DGS30).
Coming up: economic releases
U.S. releases of medium and high importance in the next 14 days, with the previous reading.
| Date | Release | Importance | Previous | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2110:30 ET | Crude Oil Inventories | Medium | -8.557M | – |
| Oct 2208:30 ET | Initial Jobless Claims | Medium | 199K | – |
| Oct 2309:45 ET | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | Medium | 55.9 | – |
| Oct 2309:45 ET | S&P Global Services PMI | Medium | 58.8 | – |
| Oct 2310:00 ET | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | Medium | 46.3 | – |
| Oct 2708:30 ET | Durable Goods Orders | Medium | -0.1% | – |
| Oct 2710:00 ET | CB Consumer Confidence | Medium | 81.9 | – |
| Oct 2710:00 ET | New Home Sales | Medium | 6.4% | – |
| Oct 2908:30 ET | Core PCE Price Index | High | 0.2% | – |
| Oct 2908:30 ET | Core PCE Prices | High | 3.30% | – |
| Oct 2908:30 ET | GDP | High | 2.2% | – |
| Oct 2908:30 ET | GDP Price Index | High | 6.1% | – |
| Oct 2908:30 ET | GDP Sales | High | 2.8% | – |
| Oct 2908:30 ET | PCE price index | High | 0.3% | – |
| Oct 2908:30 ET | PCE Price index | High | 3.4% | – |
| Oct 3008:30 ET | Employment Cost Index | Medium | 0.9% | – |
| Oct 3009:45 ET | Chicago PMI | Medium | 58.8 | – |
| Nov 210:45 ET | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | Medium | 55.9 | – |
| Nov 211:00 ET | ISM Manufacturing PMI | High | 54.5 | – |
| Nov 311:00 ET | JOLTS Job Openings | High | 7.079M | – |
Elsewhere: high-importance releases
| Date | Release | Country | Importance | Previous | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2907:00 ET | BoE Interest Rate Decision | United Kingdom | High | 3.75% | – |
| Oct 2909:15 ET | Deposit Facility Rate | Euro Zone | High | 2.50% | – |
| Oct 2909:15 ET | ECB Interest Rate Decision | Euro Zone | High | 2.65% | – |
| Oct 2923:00 ET | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | Japan | High | – | – |
Next Federal Reserve meetings
- Oct 28
2026FOMC meeting, October 27-28Decision at 2:00 p.m. ET - Dec 9
2026FOMC meeting, December 8-9Decision at 2:00 p.m. ET; with the Summary of Economic Projections - Jan 27
2027FOMC meeting, January 26-27Decision at 2:00 p.m. ET - Mar 17
2027FOMC meeting, March 16-17Decision at 2:00 p.m. ET; with the Summary of Economic Projections
Current target range: 3.75%–4.00%, set Sep 16, 2026.
Source: Nasdaq economic calendar; Federal Reserve FOMC calendar. Times are U.S. Eastern.
Recent Treasury auctions
The latest 15 auctions of Treasury bills, notes and bonds.
| Auction | Security | CUSIP | High rate | Bid to cover | Offered | Tendered | Accepted | Indirect share | Matures |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 4-Week BillReopening | 912797VX2 | 4.068% | 2.56 | $110.0B | $289.4B | $117.4B | 63.3% | Nov 17, 2026 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 8-Week BillReopening | 912797WF0 | 4.132% | 2.26 | $105.0B | $244.9B | $112.1B | 46.9% | Dec 15, 2026 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 17-Week Bill | 912797WZ6 | 4.313% | 2.79 | $75.0B | $214.4B | $80.1B | 54.2% | Feb 16, 2027 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 13-Week BillReopening | 912797VT1 | 4.185% | 2.68 | $95.0B | $260.2B | $100.4B | 59.6% | Jan 14, 2027 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 26-Week BillReopening | 912797UE5 | 4.351% | 2.76 | $82.0B | $231.4B | $86.7B | 66.3% | Apr 15, 2027 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 6-Week BillReopening | 912797SU2 | 4.055% | 2.58 | $95.0B | $250.9B | $100.4B | 65.2% | Nov 27, 2026 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 29-Year 10-Month BondReopening | 912810UW6 | 5.618% | 2.54 | $22.0B | $56.4B | $22.5B | 72.3% | Aug 15, 2056 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 4-Week BillReopening | 912797VW4 | 4.048% | 2.40 | $110.0B | $273.2B | $119.3B | 57.3% | Nov 10, 2026 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 8-Week BillReopening | 912797WE3 | 4.060% | 2.77 | $105.0B | $299.8B | $113.9B | 70.3% | Dec 8, 2026 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 17-Week Bill | 912797WY9 | 4.219% | 3.10 | $75.0B | $238.9B | $81.4B | 59.7% | Feb 9, 2027 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 9-Year 10-Month NoteReopening | 91282CRF0 | 5.300% | 2.77 | $39.0B | $109.0B | $39.9B | 80.3% | Aug 15, 2036 |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 3-Year Note | 91282CRQ6 | 4.932% | 2.62 | $58.0B | $153.1B | $59.4B | 57.6% | Oct 15, 2029 |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 6-Week BillReopening | 912797UZ8 | 4.018% | 2.78 | $95.0B | $271.6B | $102.2B | 65.4% | Nov 19, 2026 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 13-Week BillReopening | 912797VS3 | 4.149% | 2.51 | $95.0B | $245.3B | $102.2B | 48.6% | Jan 7, 2027 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 26-Week Bill | 912797WU7 | 4.314% | 2.79 | $82.0B | $234.8B | $88.2B | 63.2% | Apr 8, 2027 |
Source: Treasury FiscalData, Treasury securities auctions data. High rate is the high yield for notes, bonds, TIPS and FRNs (TIPS: real yield) and the investment rate (bond-equivalent) for bills. Indirect share is indirect bidders' part of competitive accepted bids (primary dealers + direct + indirect); indirect bidders include foreign central banks bidding through the New York Fed.
Exchange rates
Daily rates for the largest currencies, and the Treasury's quarterly reporting rates.
Treasury reporting rates of exchange
| Currency | Units per U.S. dollar | As of | Change, 1 quarter | Change, 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro Zone-Euro | 0.881 | Sep 30, 2026 | +0.5% | +3.4% |
| Japan-Yen | 157.09 | Sep 30, 2026 | −3.3% | +6.1% |
| United Kingdom-Pound | 0.752 | Sep 30, 2026 | −0.5% | +1.1% |
| China-Renminbi | 6.705 | Sep 30, 2026 | −1.2% | −5.8% |
| Canada-Dollar | 1.418 | Sep 30, 2026 | −0.4% | +1.9% |
| Mexico-Peso | 18.13 | Sep 30, 2026 | +3.9% | −1.1% |
| Switzerland-Franc | 0.835 | Sep 30, 2026 | +3.2% | +4.6% |
| India-Rupee | 95.83 | Sep 30, 2026 | +1.2% | +7.9% |
| Korea-Won | 1,355.01 | Sep 30, 2026 | −0.9% | −3.5% |
| Brazil-Real | 5.205 | Sep 30, 2026 | +0.6% | −2.2% |
| Australia-Dollar | 1.435 | Sep 30, 2026 | −1.1% | −5.2% |
| South Africa-Rand | 16.39 | Sep 30, 2026 | +0.2% | −5.1% |
Sources: FRED (DEXUSEU, DEXJPUS, DEXCHUS, DTWEXBGS); Treasury reporting rates of exchange, which federal agencies use to convert foreign currency amounts, set quarterly.
The world's largest economies
Annual figures from the World Bank, latest year available.
| Economy | GDP | GDP growth | GDP per person | Inflation | Unemployment | Government debt, % of GDP | Current account, % of GDP | Population |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $30.8T | 2.2% | $90.0K | 2.9%2024 | 4.2% | 115.8% | −3.8% | 341.8M |
| China | $19.5T | 5.0% | $13.9K | 0.1% | 4.6% | – | 3.8% | 1.4B |
| Germany | $5.1T | 0.2% | $60.5K | 2.2% | 3.7% | – | 4.4% | 83.5M |
| Japan | $4.4T | 1.2% | $36.0K | 3.2% | 2.5% | – | 4.9% | 123.4M |
| India | $4.0T | 7.6% | $2.7K | 2.4% | 4.2% | 46.5%2018 | −0.5% | 1.5B |
| United Kingdom | $4.0T | 1.4% | $57.6K | 3.9% | 4.7% | 130.7% | −3.1% | 69.5M |
| France | $3.4T | 0.8% | $49.0K | 0.9% | 7.5% | – | −0.3% | 68.7M |
| Italy | $2.6T | 0.5% | $43.3K | 1.5% | 6.4% | – | 1.1% | 58.9M |
| Canada | $2.3T | 1.7% | $55.7K | 2.1% | 6.9% | 64.1% | −1.0% | 41.7M |
| Brazil | $2.3T | 2.3% | $10.7K | 5.0% | 6.0% | 81.9% | −2.9% | 212.8M |
| Russian Federation | $2.6T | 1.0% | $17.5K | 8.7% | 2.1% | 17.9% | 1.5% | 143.5M |
| Korea, Rep. | $1.9T | 1.0% | $36.2K | 2.1% | 2.7% | 47.8% | 6.6% | 51.7M |
| Australia | $1.8T | 1.4% | $65.1K | 2.9% | 4.1% | 57.9%2022 | −2.8% | 27.6M |
| Spain | $1.9T | 2.8% | $38.6K | 2.7% | 10.4% | 105.6% | 2.9% | 49.4M |
| Mexico | $1.8T | 0.6% | $13.9K | 3.8% | 2.7% | 50.3% | −0.5% | 131.9M |
| Indonesia | $1.4T | 5.1% | $5.1K | 1.9% | 3.2% | – | −0.1% | 285.7M |
| Turkiye | $1.6T | 3.6% | $18.6K | 34.9% | 8.5% | 25.5% | −1.9% | 85.9M |
| Saudi Arabia | $1.3T | 4.5% | $34.5K | 2.0% | 3.0% | – | −2.6% | 37.0M |
| Netherlands | $1.3T | 1.8% | $73.7K | 3.2% | 3.9% | – | 7.6% | 18.1M |
| Switzerland | $1.0T | 1.3% | $114.8K | 0.2% | 4.9% | 22.3% | 6.2% | 9.1M |
| European Union | $21.2T | 1.5% | $47.1K | 2.5% | 5.9% | – | – | 451.1M |
| World | $118.4T | 2.9% | $14.4K | 3.0% | 4.8% | – | – | 8.2B |
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS, GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZS, BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS, SP.POP.TOTL). Latest year available for each indicator (2024–2025); a small year under a value means that country's figure is older. GDP in current U.S. dollars; inflation is consumer prices; unemployment is the ILO modeled estimate.